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Is the Russian Bear Waking Up From a Long Hibernation?
To understand the pulse of the present day independent states of the former Soviet Union, including Russia, one must be cognizant of the geo-political history of the USSR. The break-up of the Soviet Union, for which Russia stills blames the US and the West, was and remains a major slap in the face for many Russians. Today, as the country emerges from the darkness of its own shadow, Moscow continues to dream about restoring its world super power status.After the 1917 October revolution, the Soviet Union began its expansion eastward, westward, and southward, occupying small independent countries and turning them into the Soviet Socialist Republics. The main policy of the newly established union was to obliterate the cultural identities of the occupied nations, enforce the hegemony of Russian education and language, and replace money with cultural achievements as the unifying force of peoples. The Soviet state positioned itself as a "pro-people" nation and banned anything that even remotely resembled "bourgeois capitalism." The Soviet territory encapsulated the vast area stretching from the Central Asian (CA) steppes in the east to the fertile lands of the Caucasus to the south, instilling a common "Soviet" identity in its citizens. This forced "love affair" with the formerly independent states created a situation in which small nationalities resented "big brother" Russia and feared its "mighty fist." Whatever their feelings might have been, these nations never stopped dreaming of regaining their independence.
In the early 1990s, the Soviet Union ceased to exist and the former Soviet republics re-emerged as independent countries. Shortly afterwards, however, they found themselves in a different predicament: they now faced territorial conflicts with their neighbors. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over Nagornyi Karabach, and Georgia had devastating clashes with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia saw these conflicts as an opportunity to regain its power by implementing a policy of "divide and conquer." For example, during the first Georgia-Abkhazian war in the late 1980s, Russian forces secretly aided Abkhazia and supplied it with manpower, heavy artillery, and ammunition. Russia viewed Georgia, like other Soviet republics, as an integral part of its sphere of influence. Abkhazia "won" its first war with Georgia; the 19 percent Abkhaz minority ousted its majority Georgian neighbors in Abkhazia, killed hundreds of people, burned their houses, and turned residents into refugees in their own country.
Russia, however, was itself broken both economically and politically. Soon, Ukraine and Georgia managed to follow in the footsteps of their Baltic neighbors, seceded from Russia, and brought "color" revolutions to their lands, laying the foundation for the first democracies in the post Soviet territory. The "happy ending," however, did not last long. Russia became particularly concerned with the ambitions of Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. Having lost members of its now extinct Warsaw Pact to NATO forces, Russia vowed to never let go of Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow understood that it did not have support among the Georgian and Ukrainian people, but it also knew that Tbilisi would not rest until it took back Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Prior to the infamous war in August 2008 when Russia openly attacked Georgia, Moscow had granted South Ossetians Russian citizenship, and in 2008, under the guise of "defending" its own citizens, Russia invaded Georgia. In the recent Ukranian elections, Russia facilitated the defeat of the pro-Western candidate, and it now vows that Georgia will soon turn its back to Western-style democracy and embrace its "big brother." What does Russia really want from this tiny country of Georgia, and why does it have such a hard time letting it go?
The answer partly lies in Russia's geo-political location. Being surrounded by frozen bodies of waters in the north, Russia is practically land-locked. Georgia and Ukraine represent its "window" to the West. Here, across the Black Sea coasts, Russia can easily navigate to the Mediterranean Sea and from there to the Atlantic or Indian Oceans. Georgia is also a crossroads between East and West, and a passionate friend of the United States, ready to open its territory to US military bases. In addition, Georgia has developed its first gas/oil pipeline, the "Baku-Tbilisi-Jayhan" pipeline, which delivers gas from the Caspian Sea directly to Europe, bypassing Russia. Russia views Georgia not only as a political threat, which allows NATO to be in close proximity, but also as an economic risk: any diversion from its monopoly on gas pipelines puts Russia in a vulnerable position. Because Georgians embrace and enjoy their close relationship with the US, Russia feels there is only one way to reclaim control of Georgia: by taking the country back piece by piece.
Russia today is diligently moving toward restoring its might by regaining its former allies one at a time. On 17 February, it signed an agreement to establish a military base in Abkhazia and enacted a "pre-emptive strike" law, in which Russia now reserves the right to use nuclear power if any other country attacks it or its allies with either nuclear or conventional weapons. Moscow is also increasing its military spending, investing in the latest technology, and trying to reverse its "brain-drain." It is implementing rigorous science education programs domestically and inviting highly skilled professionals from abroad. In the middle of February 2010, Russia purchased a state-of-the-art assault ship, the Mistral helicopter carrier. According to a recent statement by the Georgian Association, a non-profit organization based in Washington DC, the ship "will increase Russia's projection capabilities in the Baltic and Black Seas." Even bloggers from the Central Asian states have been extremely anxious lately. They are concerned that Russia will use the excuse of growing narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan, coupled with the probability of spillage of the Afghan war into CA territories, to occupy this region under the guise of protecting its citizens.
What does all of this mean for the United States and the rest of the world? While the US is dealing with its own problems in Afghanistan and Iran, it has shifted its relationship with Russia toward friendship and cooperation. Countries like Georgia, Ukraine, and CA states are becoming "bargaining chips" with Russia in exchange for its support in the ongoing war on terrorism. In reality, the Russia-US "relationship reset" resembles more of a temporary truce than anything else. While gaining leverage in one area, the US is losing its leverage in another. Washington assumes that Moscow is now its ally, but the US is allowing Russia to regain its power, destroy the emerging democracies in the post-Soviet territories, and reestablish itself as a viable super power. - Only this time, Russia intends to learn from its past mistakes and be stronger.
The views and opinions expressed in this blog post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion or position of Concepts & Strategies, Inc.
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